> The timing of the test, coinciding with Pence's trip and a day after the military parade, would suggest deliberate defiance
How? The parade happened as part of the "Day of the Sun," their most important holiday and when they usually hold a military parade and showcase new weapons.
It seems to me that if a country has nuclear weapons and they are used in an attack, then one should desire them to be delivered by ICBM. Then there is no doubt where it came from and who attacked who. Living on the US Pacific coast, I sure do not like the idea of a North Korea with long range missiles, but they do have many submarines and a few nuclear weapons stealthily delivered by a few of those would have much worse long term consequences for civilization. The re-abandonment of American cities could happen just as they are starting to bloom once again after a long hiatus.
Crazy question: could some of North Korea's weapon test failures be deliberate?
They know their tests are being watched by the world. They know that if they get to a point where they are an believable imminent threat there might be preemptive action taken against them.
Given that, it would be in their interest to make sure the rest of the world underestimates their progress.
One way that could help with that would be when doing a test to test X make it so it looks like it is actually testing Y, and make sure that the Y test prominently fails.
Kim Jong Un doesn't quite strike me as a suicidal personality. Furthermore, I suspect he is not surrounded suicidal staff.
There's no end-game in a spontaneous lashing out at anybody in the region. It's not a winnable situation for North Korea to attack anybody. They don't get anything from actual violent belligerence.
They're basically a bee hive. They've got their territory, and there's not much else happening, except maybe them screwing around on the internet for kicks, and their science projects like their ICBM program.
At some point, his wife will bear a son. He'll have an heir, and life goes on.
But what if war cracked the country open, and he got taken out. What would a re-integration of North Korean society look like?
I don't think what we need right now is a world police, especially not an American one. But, since you mention a region on earth that you seem to think is in need of integrating with the rest, what would you think would happen to the region that is USA if civil war cracked it open? Do you think at least half of that country could be integrated with the rest of the world?
When the US does split you're going to have multiple fragments, one of which will be so impossible to deal with that everyone else will just pretend they don't exist.
Gee, you seem to be pointing a tough question at somebody who advocated some "world policing" but I wonder who that was because it wasn't the parent post.
In fact, re-read that comment, because what was said pretty much advocated policing absolutely nobody.
But, okay, let's all argue. You're right. North Korea isn't isolated from the world at all, and its citizens pretty much go anywhere they want, do whatever they want, and come back home whenever they're done doing as they please.
But I wonder: if the typical North Korean citizen were unhappy (and we know they aren't), where would they go, and what would they do, if this hypothetical repressive lid (which doesn't exist) were suddenly lifted, and the pressure of a (normal) subculture were relaxed?
> . They've got their territory, and there's not much else happening, except maybe them screwing around on the internet for kicks, and their science projects like their ICBM program.
Totally agree. In fact having a sense of security can help him and his people have a better life and help American taxpayers avoid another needless war.
I am not saying USA is at fault here but I think actually trying to increase trade with NK and letter NK be involved in world affairs littler more might help Kim actually do something better for his people. If USA polish bottoms of Saudi Arabia it can probably be little more nice to North Korea too. It might actually help the world peace.
I think China will use NK as a borrowed knife eventually or USA might attack its own soil and blame it on NK to start a war.
NK is a threat to its Soth Korean and Japanese neighbours, both US allies. So the US will never increase trade with NK to appease its sociopathic dictator. Rather than that they are moving a strike group with Aegis anti-ICBM missle capability into the area and talking to China saying "if you don't handle Kim, we will".
I doubt there is going to be any attack on NK. The strike group maneuver is merely ment to discourage Kim and show South Korea and Japan that the US is still a reliable ally.
Depending on who you ask, half of South Koreans would say US is being an unreliable ally, casually talking about actions that could start a war in Korea. If bombs start falling on Seoul, it would matter little to my family and friends who fired the first shot.
The common sentiment is "Shit, our allies and enemies are led by idiots. (Not to mention our own country, for the time being.) Let's hope nobody's crazy enough to do something stupid..."
They're all just showing off. I understand your concern, but South Korea is technically still at war with the North even if everybody only fires warning shots and plays propaganda over the border to annoy their neighbours.
Well my argument is that all US allies too should increase trade with Kim.
> So the US will never increase trade with NK to appease its sociopathic dictator
Well USA has very good trade relationship with China and Saudi both countries that would come second and third in terms of human rights abuses. In fact Saudi is a close ally.
It appears to me that USA wants a war and not to de-escalate the tensions and bring peace. All this eventually will come a a huge cost for South Koreans and US taxpayers.
When was the last time sanctions really worked ? India and Pakistan have very good nuclear arsenals and continue to build advance weapons despite all the threats and sanctions. Russia did not return the Crimea because of sanctions. Iran did not abandon its nuclear program because of sanctions.
The US is being pragmatic. China and the Saudis are countries you can do business with, not some wannabe bully threatening their US-allied neighbours and the USA with nukes. The last thing the USA wants in the Korean peninsula is war. They want to continue to do business as usual with South Korea, Japan and China without some pesky fatso dictator threatening regional stability with duct tape built nukes and ICBMs. But if it takes a few preemptive strikes to neuter Kim, they will gladly lend a hand.
I didn't down vote you but your reasoning is faulty. It isn't causal that 'free markets and capitalism' result in superior space capabilities. The US had its ass whipped getting into space by the Soviets who had a regime that was very definitely not free markets and capitalism.
The US (and pretty much all countries) are 'propaganda' machines to one extent or another.
The US has a very active role in sabotaging the North Korean nuclear and missile programs. It just hasn't been publicized to the same degree as Stuxnet was with the Iranians.
Fresh Air did an episode on it a few weeks ago, following a New York Times article.
>This should be enough evidence alone that free markets and capitalism is vastly superior.
North Korea is isolated from the entire world. I don't think any meaningful evaluation of economic systems can be made here beyond isolation from the worlds physical and intellectual resources makes for poor innovation.
Free markets and capitalism is vastly superior when the bicycle is rolling and society can hit a balance. Until then, you need a single concentrated effort at just one thing. And if you look at the evolution of free markets, you had that in nearly every industry, every emerging technology to some degree.
When the pinata breaks, new technologies and competing industries emerge. SpaceX, Boeing, Blue Labs are an emergence of a sustained governmental push with some reliance on private partnerships. Otherwise, we would still be trying to get to the moon.
I don't think comparing an internet entrepreneur's rocket technology to an isolated nation state's ballistic missle failure is evidence for any macroeconomic theory.
And trying to discredit an opinion based on where its holder comes from is bordering on naughty.
Kim is using nukes as means of propaganda and showing off NK is capable of bullying his neighbours while NK population is starving. It's just a psyctoric dictator strategy to to stay in power.
According to the BBC[1], while North Korea has successfully detonated five times, it is exponentially more difficult to get the package small enough to fit on a missile.
Blast radius + fallout radius. Either you want it as a terror weapon, and pinpoint accuracy isn't needed. Or you want it as a mutually assured destruction deterrent, and you only need so much accuracy to be credible.
Fallout radius for a 15 megaton blast, superimposed on the north eastern US. Anything with numbers (roentgens) above ~500 is fatal, though less than that isn't harmless either: http://nikealaska.org/nuke/CasBravM.gif Much, much bigger than what the DPRK has tested, but the principal is the same. Low tech SCUD level accuracy is fine.
The Nagasaki bomb missed by 3km. It was similar in size to what the DPRK has tested.
Rockets carry the fuel needed to travel straight up and almost nothing else. Attaching a ton of explosives to it and trying to aim it is a bit trickier.
Besides, claiming the free market works because the country almost every capitalist state refuses to do business with has some problems is a bit of a joke.
You've obviously got strong feelings about communism, but your comment is factually incorrect. Can I recommend you google search anarchism and anarcho-communism? Hopefully they'll reveal to you more answers about the various economic systems and their shortcomings. I'd also recommend you search Juche which is the official economic system utilized by the North Koreans, and how it rejects communism.
How? The parade happened as part of the "Day of the Sun," their most important holiday and when they usually hold a military parade and showcase new weapons.