I agree with most of what you say...AOT is far more of a competitive advantage for phones and other devices.
But I'd argue that there are very few benefits of JIT that can't be achieved by AOT + PGO. A sound static type system nullifies the need for most of those benefits (like speculative type optimizations and deoptimizations). But it might have the upper hand in cases where profiling can't capture all of the possible optimizable workloads that the binary would see. Databases or other large programs that continuously specialize over the lifecycle of the process. But that is far more niche than most people realize.
But I'd argue that there are very few benefits of JIT that can't be achieved by AOT + PGO. A sound static type system nullifies the need for most of those benefits (like speculative type optimizations and deoptimizations). But it might have the upper hand in cases where profiling can't capture all of the possible optimizable workloads that the binary would see. Databases or other large programs that continuously specialize over the lifecycle of the process. But that is far more niche than most people realize.