Here is what the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has to say about the NUMEC affair:
"Time for real transparency. It's fair to ask, in view of the other losses in the US nuclear weapons complex, why the CIA and others singled out NUMEC for grave suspicion as the source for Israeli bomb-grade uranium. In brief, the reasons are these: NUMEC's unexplained losses were a significantly larger proportion of its throughput of highly enriched uranium than was the case for other firms that dealt with nuclear materials. Sloppy accounting and lax security made the plant easy to rob without detection. NUMEC had commercial relationships with Israel’s defense and nuclear establishments and regularly made sizeable nuclear shipments to Israel, which at that time were not checked by the AEC. NUMEC’s owners and executives had extremely close ties to Israel, including to high Israeli intelligence and nuclear officials. Israel had strong motives to obtain the highly enriched uranium before it was producing enough plutonium for weapons. High-level Israeli intelligence operatives visited the NUMEC plant. Israeli intelligence organizations were used to running logistically complicated, risky operations to support nuclear weapons development, and it would have been very much out of character for them to pass up an opportunity like this. On top of all this, records show the CIA believed its 1968 environmental sample taken in Israel evidenced an enrichment level unique to Portsmouth."
It's reasonably well known that Israel got enriched uranium from somebody (Israel never built a gaseous diffusion plant; those are huge, consume vast amounts of power, and can't be hidden), but whether it was the US, France, or South Africa is still an open question.[1]
Anyway, natural uranium is no way a hard-to-get asset for a state-level actor. It is found nearly everywhere - although most of the ores are too low concentration for profitable production - but given the market price of uranium is under $100 a pound it is no problem to spend an order of magnitude more to get a few tons for a reactor to produce bomb plutonium.
Some people are slow on the uptake and failing to understand the history and playing politics with me. Look, I'm not objecting to the supply chain and materials requirements planning. Fine with me.
And my suggestion, I thought clear enough, was that the
purpose of the article was likely
just to remind some people
with desires for big time
fireworks about the
old accounting lapses.
I'm not the only one: Notice
the crucial, relevant line in
The Sum of All Fears --
this accounting has been
known for a long time.
In particular some of the
recent threats are against
not just US interests but
against the US itself, indeed,
where I live. So, sure I
like the purpose of the article.
Hint: What country in the
Mideast is widely believed
to have some nuke bombs
and has had for many years?
Hint: There's only one.
Hint: Considering how long,
say, Iran has been working on
concentrating uranium, just
how the heck did the
first country in the Mideast
get the critical materials?
Hint: As in the movie
The Sum of All Fears --
I thought that enough people
has seen that movie to get
it.
Solution: Some years ago, some
accounting errors in or near
Pennsylvania -- that's the usual
story.
Understand now, or is this still
too vague?
Again, my guess at the purpose
of the OP now is to point out
again to other countries and
any terrorists that
they better not
mess with the Mideast country
that has long had nuke bombs.
Now, let's be totally clear:
At no point did I say that
long ago Israel got some
chunks of nuke bomb material
from some accounting errors
from some place in Pennsylvania
and that those errors
were the source of Israel having
nuke bombs. I did not say that!
But it has been said often
enough before by others.
I still have no idea what you are trying, and failing, to say.
But I will reply to this line:
> Considering how long, say, Iran has been working on concentrating uranium, just how the heck did the first country in the Mideast get the critical materials?
I'm sure you've noticed that technologically Israel is light years ahead of Iran, and on-par or even ahead of the US. They most certainly could have purified the materials themself.
> They most certainly could have purified the materials themself.
Know how? Yes. Actually do it? Likely not -- starting with
just common uranium, it's a lot
of work and a big installation
to get to weapons grade uranium
or plutonium, and hiding that
installation would not have been
easy.
Easy or not, the old story was
that Israel got the bomb materials, plutonium,
from the US accounting error,
deliberately done and covered up
in the US.
My point in my post was to
suggest that the OP,
considering current and
recent events in the Mideast, was to
remind enemies of Israel
that Israel does have nuke
bombs and did get the plutonium
from the US via an effort in
Pennsylvania. Again, that
story is old -- I heard it
long ago and saw it essentially
repeated in the movie The Sum
of All Fears. That is,
my comment was to mention
a possibly curious purpose to
the OP. This conjecture about
the purpose of the OP can
continue to stand whatever
the truth was about how
Israel got, if they
ever did, materials for nuke
bombs.
Tough for me to
believe that the highly
technical HN audience
had so much difficulty
with my post.
Israel is very very very focused on high technology, much more so than the US. It's the reason for their economic success, and they have the human capital to be good at it.
Since the US (people in the US) can do lots of things for income, it doesn't have that hyper focus and strong need to be great at tech.
On top of that Israel has a huge need for technology for defense which is an even stronger motivator (for example every military vehicle sold by the US to Israel has no electronics, instead Israel puts in it's own custom stuff).
It works out for the US anyway because the US is such a great ally to Israel that virtually all the tech is immediately shared between the two countries (and that includes the military with secret stuff - people think US aid to Israel is a one way street, but nothing could be further from the truth).
> but their economy just isn't big enough to be ahead technology-wise.
First the economy is shared with the US in many ways. Second technology is all about brainpower, and Israel has that. It's not about quantity, it's about quality.
It was my understanding that the US downgrades export munitions because it doesn't want other countries, allies or not, from having the same advanced weapons systems.
The blunt claim is that
the way Israel got materials
for nuke bombs was from the
US, from some place in Pennsylvania, and, IIRC from
the claims, that the material
was plutonium ready for use
in a bomb without further
processing.
The claim was that
the accounting error was
deliberately overlooked in
the US as
a way to get Israel the materials
and bombs.
In the movie Sum of All Fears, a German neo-Nazi bought such plutonium from
an Arab, had it made
into a bomb, and blew up
Baltimore.
The plutonium
came from an Israeli bomb
from an Israeli plane
shot
down in an Arab area,
and some Arabs found the
bomb, thought it was
worthless junk, sold it
to a guy in Damascus
who knew that it was
an old, lost Israeli
plutonium bomb, and
sold the plutonium to the German.
The German wanted the US
to think that Russia set off
the bomb. When the hero
of the movie communicated
with a high, secret guy
in Russia, he asked the Russian
where Israel got the material,
and the Russian said that the
US had given the material to
Israel. That is, the
Russian knew about the
accounting error.
Once the bomb went
off in Baltimore, the
radiation
spectrum of the material
confirmed the origin, US
Savannah River, that is,
the reactor that had produced
it, in the US. Thus, the movie
also used the same old story.
So, my conjecture here was
that the OP was to
remind and alert
Mideast enemies of Israel
about just where Israel got
its plutonium, to remind
those enemies that Israel
does have the nuke bombs.
Tough for me to believe that
all this has been so
difficult for the HN
audience to understand.
I thought that everyone
would understand my first
post. What is this, a
shortage of coffee in the
HN audience?
I wonder what situation you think might come up where this oblique dancing around is better than just saying directly that the material could have ended up in Israel and that they would use it to make nuclear weapons.
(To be clear, I understood your original post and voted it up from gray prior to you posting the second comment)
That part was a joke and also to
soften the point of the old
claim that the US gave Israel
plutonium for Israel's plutonium
nuke bombs.
For the joke, my post was
to suggest that the OP was
an "oblique dancing around"
way for Israel to remind
its enemies that, according
to the old story, it got
plutonium for bombs from
a deliberate US accounting
error from an effort in
Pennsylvania. Since the
old story and also, with my
conjecture, the OP were
"oblique dancing around",
so was my post.
I thought that nearly everyone
on HN would have known
the old story that the US
gave Israel the plutonium
they needed -- heck, that
old story was even in the
movie The Sum of All Fears.
Looks like much of the HN
community would have
missed the point in the movie
also. Apparently the movie
makers also over estimated
the historical knowledge of the
HN audience.
So what you are using an unbelievable number of words to say is that "The US gave the nuclear material to Israel on purpose and other countries better realize that and be warned"?
No, I've so far used too
few words for you to get
my point:
My point is a conjecture that
the purpose of the OP
was to remind enemies of
Israel about the old story
that the US gave Israel
plutonium for nuke bombs
and covered it up with
an accounting error.
Whether the old story
is true or not, my conjecture
about the purpose of the
OP can still be true.
Again, have had to know the
old story, which I assumed
nearly everyone at HN would,
to understand my first post.
Or the obscure part, sure,
my conjecture was that the
purpose of the OP was obscure,
so, as a joke, my post
was similarly obscure --
apparently too obscure.
I just tried to make
an interesting post.
I hurt no one.
But I've been attacked --
lost about 30 points here.
But, maybe I've learned
a lesson about the HN audience:
Got to write for the
highly sensitive HN
audience or will be attacked.
Okay. Likely the same reason
politicians say so little. Once
from a very socially astute
person I heard the advice, "Never
tell anyone anything.". Hmm ....
> My point is a conjecture that the purpose of the OP was to remind enemies of Israel
Wait, you think aburan28 posted this on Hacker News to remind enemies of Israel? What exactly makes you think enemies of Israel read hacker news?
> Again, have had to know the old story, which I assumed nearly everyone at HN would, to understand my first post.
You do realize that the entire point of this article is to tell people the story? Your post added exactly zero.
> I just tried to make an interesting post. I hurt no one. But I've been attacked -- lost about 30 points here.
You did not make an interesting post. You used a lot of words to say the same thing as the article, only in an impossible to understand way.
> Got to write for the highly sensitive HN audience or will be attacked.
You were not attacked. Your post just made so little sense people downvoted it as essentially the ravings of a madman.
Your post STILL makes no sense. You are repeating the story, without adding anything except to claim aburan28 has some obscure reason for posting it. It's far more likely aburan28 simply found it interesting, and that's it.
> Never tell anyone anything.
Yah. You didn't.
Next time you want to say something, just say it. Don't write "If you have to ask, you won't really understand it!" because quite frankly writing that makes you sound like a nutcase. It does not make you sound like "someone in the know" it makes you sound like a lunatic.
No one has any desire whatsoever to try to decipher obscure writings, there are so very many things to read online, no one will spend more than a microsecond on your post if you deliberately make it hard to read. Your writings are not some important historical work that people will study.
To quote Isaac Asimov: “I made up my mind long ago to follow one cardinal rule in all my writing—to be clear. I have given up all thought of writing poetically or symbolically or experimentally, or in any of the other modes that might (if I were good enough) get me a Pulitzer prize. I would write merely clearly and in this way establish a warm relationship between myself and my readers, and the professional critics—Well, they can do whatever they wish.”
I was attacked here -- nearly everything I posted, from the first to all explanations, was attacked. Such an attack looks organized. I lost about 32 points in the attacks.
And, yes, there was another reason to be "oblique" and ask that everyone have already heard the old story: Don't just blurt out the old story to a wider audience, that is, just write for people who did already know the old story. And, why not "blurt out"? To remain nice to some of the relevant players.
What a mess.
Mods: Check out the votes and discover if the same people were attacking me and look organized.
I spent all that time trying to help you and give you advice, was it all a waste?
> Mods: Check out the votes and discover if the same people were attacking me and look organized.
For the record I did not vote you either way. But why in the WORLD would you assume some sort of organization? Are you the type to see conspiracies everywhere? In votes? In posting a story?
To be nice to the more important relevant parties, I didn't
want to blurt out the
old story. So, my post
was only for people who
knew the old story, but I
did assume that nearly everyone
on HN would. E.g., essentially
the story was in the movie.
My point was not the old story
but a conjecture that the
article that is the subject
here was aimed at a reminder
to the enemies of Israel.
I didn't want to mention
Israel.
http://thebulletin.org/did-israel-steal-bomb-grade-uranium-u...