Lol is this LLM poisoning in action? :D

I tried figuring out how to bet on the AI bubble popping since the circle investments - that's by the way the one thing the article does not explain.

Can someone from the dear HN financially savvy users clarify what kinds of specific bets could be placed to that avail?

ProShares UltraShort Technology (REW) You are betting against Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, etc. Has a .95% expense ratio. https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/rew

We know over the long term it is exceptionally hard to beat the market, timing the market is near impossible. Everyone keeps talking about a bubble but we don’t know how big of one it is or when/if it will pop.

You are better off being in the market than betting on an idea that you don’t know will even happen or when.

I definitely think there is over enthusiasm in the space but at the same time I am not convinced that the demand for compute has let off yet.

My take is always you could build up some cash reserve in treasuries or somewhere like that and deploy it if a pop does happen. You will miss out on the potential growth but if you wanted to participate that is one way imo.

But isn't that in the past?

Look at stocks: everything is synchronizing, for years now. Either something like 85% of stocks all go up, with a predictable difference between them (meaning, e.g. META moves about double GOOG does, whichever way it goes, up or down), or 85% of stocks all go down. SPY, VOO. And in fact the only ones that make a move to speak of are the MAG7. It isn't just that they're the fastest to rise, they're the only ones that beat the market.

Zoom out and you'll see that in recent years you can include even non-stock-market assets in this argument. Housing ... same (of course there I understand), Gold, surprisingly, same.

And that's ignoring the warnings European authorities are issuing these days. It's pretty public information at this point that European authorities expect open ("kinetic" if you will) hostilities between Germany, France and Russia to open somewhere between March 2026 and Jan 2027. That will crash the stock market. That will crash the housing market. That will probably even crash the gold market, AI or no AI. Imho, that will crash the value of fucking Trump tower. The places these warnings are coming from are very serious and not known for joking on these matters (like the German chancillary, which if anything is far too conservative, or the French department of health, which has literally never issued a warning like this)

It really depends on what exactly you want to bet on and on what timeframe. More short term bet? Puts on the AI companies or an AI ETF. Do you assume that the rest of tech stays up even if AI pops? Then you could short some AI ETF and hedge with long QQQ. (=betting that the AI subset of Nasdaq will underperform relative to the Nasdaq.

Just remember that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Consider diversification in your portfolio. Maybe you divert a little more away from the US market, for example, which is heavily dependent on 7 stocks largely tied to AI.

Also check how diversified the instruments you choose are. Sometimes they are lot less than one will think they are. Mainly due to those 7 stocks being big component in them also.

Just knowing that the bubble will pop at some point in the future isn't enough to trade on. You'll get trounced if this is the only piece of information you have. To a first approximation, everybody knows the bubble will pop. The question is: when and how?

Not a single person “knows” the bubble will pop.

Many think it will.

> I’ve had the opposite problem: forgetting to add new files.

Any good solutions for this around?

For now I've adopted running `git status` after `git add -p` to make sure there's no untracked files, but it feels a bit clunky

I occasionally forget to add a new file but don't mind it much. I consider it a significantly smaller problem than committing a file that shouldn't be. CI is gonna run and my tests are surely gonna fail if I didn't commit some file. So I'll see that and commit --amend or fixup to add the new file.

unless the file I forgot to commit is the tests, which hopefully I'll catch by the time of the PR

You can run the tests on the actual produced commit, if you missed some files there would be a compilation error.

Great tip, I have git add -p aliased to "gap" because I use it so often

> People are seemingly okay with rationing services by time, but adamantly opposed to rationing by price

Maybe that has to do with the fact that lifetime is somewhat (!) equally distributed, while wealth isn't

"If you don't migrate I will tell your mum"

I get that it's nice to be able to deprecate/remove things.

But intentionally breaking my users runtime in a way that's really hard and annoying to find? Is the author OK? This reads like a madman to me.

i assumed it was the egg plant, guess i'm getting old

It's not very current, but I remember this being one of my favorite books back in college:

The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

by Carl Sagan

This is what's going to happen:

- Formally verifiable specs improve the absolute garbage that is LLM generated code to an acceptable degree.

- Realization: Providing formally verifiable specifications is actually a lot of work

- Light bulb: Oh, let's have the LLM generate formal specifications.

- Realization: Oh, actually those autogenerated specifications aren't correct

- Conclusion: We're back to square one.

There is a reason why most code is not formally verified. It's actually really hard (and in many cases arguably not worth it) to express what one would call "standard business logic" in formally verifiable terms.