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Personally I feel the long term outlook is not good. We've already had a number of near misses, even though the number of countries with nuclear arsenals is likely as low as it will ever be, and no nuclear armed state has yet gone through a serious civil or genuinely existential state of war to my knowledge. At least the number of warheads is way down since the Cold war. There's no real end in sight though. We just have to keep getting lucky until we're probably an interstellar civilization to be reasonably free of a nuclear self-extinction risk.

Don't SPACs generally move the needle in the opposite direction? ie they turn private companies into public ones.

An existing public company merges with a private company to make that private company public.

The SPAC is created for the purpose of that transaction though. If SPACs weren't a thing the private company would exist and the public company would not.

I know that burgers are usually stacked to tilt away from the camera in photography to show the contents. (ie the bottom bun is laterally closer to the camera than the top in a downward view) I don't know why you would stack them to the side because it's more obvious, and in this case you can hardly see anything different at such a shallow angle. It's almost like they stacked them and then took the picture from a randomly selected angle or something.

I never understood the economics of these. Say a balcony panel would generate $X worth of electricity for me over the next 5 years. Surely someone who can place the panel on a roof or something, where it is not shaded by a giant building half the day, can generate like $3X from it. It can be part of a bigger installation too, so labor is better amortized. Given that the supply of people with roofs is far from exhausted why would the price of panels be at a level where $X instead of $3X is a reasonable return? Basically you are bidding for panels against an unlimited supply of people for whom the panels are much more valuable than to you, no?

This is primarily for renters of apartments who aren't allowed to alter the roofs. In the US, labor is more than half the cost of a rooftop installation which is hampering their adoption. The balcony solar has no labor cost at all and if the tenant needs to move, they can take it with them to their next rental so they won't lose their investment.

Kids have been beating each other up, dunking their heads in toilets, spreading rumors, upending garbage cans on each other, etc for as long as there have been kids. The bullying rate is actually at ~2/3 of what it used to be. I definitely agree from what I've heard from teachers that classroom kids are more unruly and disrespectful than before, but I don't think it's really tied to them being assholes to each other.

Hilarious that at one end of the AI world Anthropic is doing exit interviews with their models, while at the other end Zuck is trying to create a digital twin and trap them in an eternal work prison, Severance style. 2 groups having starting with the thought that today's models are getting more person-like and going in complete opposite directions with that.

I wonder how it works in his mind's eye. Does it make decisions? Does it dispense little Zuckian wisdom proverbs? Does it try to become your friend?

Edit: RE Anthropic haha: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47750086


>I wonder how it works in his mind's eye.

It might be elimination of whole tiers of management. It will be AI's all the way down.


I would also not want to take even a fair bet against black swan because the day that "S&P500 falls to lowest level since 2016 as Labubus collapse" is the headline is the exact day I least want to lose a big pile of money gambling. If it's the shareholder's money though.... I'm probably getting laid off in that scenario anyways...

Yeah they buried almost 1000 tons of it under rubble last year. Good luck digging that up easily. Some analyist suggests that 1000+ troops per location would be required: https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-enriched-uranium-nucle...

Like any insider trading you are transferring money from the public to yourself. More interestingly for the prediction market angle: you are leaking secret information by doing that. If you make big trades in anticipation of specific events other market participants can see it. That could be extremely serious if say it endangers a military operation.

There was this legal analysis about the Iran war crimes situation posted yesterday by some former military lawyers: https://www.justsecurity.org/135797/war-crimes-rhetoric-powe... Among other things they link to this: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2441

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