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How can they honestly present a chart like that when they are the ones serving the content on the feeds?


I don't expect them to be honest at all. But if we're operating under the assumption that they can't be trusted to be honest with their data, it makes it even weirder to me that they would start with numbers that already showed such low friend-focused usage when trying to make their point.


We can assume the data is both made up and honest – they tuned feed algos to show more non-friend content and these results reflect that exactly.


From the article: Owned by Restaurant Brands International of which the Brazilian investment firm 3G owns ~25%, Canadian groups own ~25% and the two US groups mentioned own ~15% together. Local employment, Toronto HQ and regionally sourced supplies are keeping it more "Canadian."


My experience in Vancouver is that Tim Hortons are full of TFW's and not local employees at all.

https://www.insauga.com/canadian-tim-hortons-locations-are-h...


There are a few different systems out there, I haven't seen one in person, but they seem like interesting ideas. I found some searching "Circulating Multi-car Elevator System"


The inflation rate has come down significantly from a huge spike in 2022. Seems like we are making progress.


Also, what’s the end game? Current rates are not that bad relative to historical rates.


The end game is the fed delivering on their sub 2% promise. Anything less would cede their credibility, which they will need in future crises.


Going right back to ZIRP will cede the Fed's credibility. Primary monetary creation needs to be done by the Treasury spending money for deliberate productive purposes, rather than given away as cheap undirected loans to banks so they can continue pumping up leveraged asset bubbles.


> Going right back to ZIRP

Sub 2 percent inflation, not sub 2 percent real interest rates.


I believe its no longer "sub" and now their mandate is just maintaining close to 2%


I know that the fed (Powell?) has been suggesting that 2% should be a long term average, but I took that largely to forgive their performance thus far. If they want credibility in the market long-term, they'll have to demonstrate they can return below 2% before lowering rates.


Not happening without a recession.


We heard that all through 2021-22 (or thereabouts) and it didn't happen. Why would it happen now?


Exactly my point! :)

...but if it does happen, inflation will come down, too.


The fed doesn't cause inflation, nor can the fed cure it. They can only react to it.


The way inflation is measured has radically changed over time. You can't realistically compare current numbers to those in the 70s. The same redefinition issue affects unemployment data. The only people I know trying to do apples-to-apples comparisons are the guys running https://www.shadowstats.com



Can you state your hypothesis more explicitly? Because a trivial reading of the numbers show the inflation rate coming down (a lot) while the deficit has gone up.


See the link. The deficit has come down, and then the inflation came down. Figures 1A and 2.

https://epicforamerica.org/the-economy/is-inflation-the-resu...


If you graph economic progress on top of all this isn't it just saying that governments spend more when economic shocks happen?

Other countries are pretty instructive as well. For instance Germany had inflation during a period when they had a budget surplus (for over a decade prior to 2019).


Germany was part of the EU, and use Euros for currency. What matters is the deficit of the EU, not Germany in particular.

It's like a deficit in Kansas does not result in inflation in the US, because Kansas does not have its own currency.

    Deficit = Spending - Revenue


You keep saying deficit. Do you mean the trade deficit or the governmental deficit?

[edit later after parent edit] Ok I think you are saying governmental spending deficit. And your link doesn’t go nearly so far as to say that you must account for every governments spending in the EU to account for this.

Do you have any other links? This is a much more expansive view on the relationship between deficits and inflation than I’ve read before.


> isn't it just saying that governments spend more when economic shocks happen?

And that the revenue may be lower. Look at 2008 and 2009. Major increases in unemployment which also resulted in reduced revenue. Which created a double whammy, spending increased because the social safety net did what it was supposed to do (carry people through tougher times) and revenue dropped because there were fewer people paying taxes and many people reduced spending (beyond just those who lost their jobs). Then the deficit drops while the employment rate increases and revenues increases while spending again decreases commensurately.


By what measure? Not to mention that reducing inflation isn't going to roll back the massive price increases that have hurt consumers on staple items.

This is what happens when you have monopolies and oligopolies doing what they please (after getting massive handouts in the form of tax cuts from Trump... surely with more on the way).

The interest-rate hikes have failed; and yet here we are, waving our hands as if helpless.


The measure is the inflation rate. Prices are not going to drop much or at all but income has also risen.


Inflation rate of what? Inflation can be measured against different "market baskets." Consider this huge defect in the commonly-cited one:

"Core inflation is the change in the costs of goods and services but does not include those from the food and energy sectors. Food and energy prices are exempt from this calculation because their prices can be too volatile or fluctuate wildly." - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coreinflation.asp

And yet the cost of food is probably the most often-cited one in any news story about inflation... unless the winner is the other statistically-omitted one, fuel.


> Consider this huge defect in the commonly-cited one:

There are multiple types of CPI because they measure different things, and they each have pluses and minuses.

The reason why Core CPI is useful is illustrated by the orange and blue lines in the first graph:

* https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2587/inflation/difference...

Good luck trying to policy with the orange (non-Core, which has food and energy) line. Or the red line in Chart 1 of:

* https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/doc...

Food and energy are heavily dependent on commodity prices, which can swing widely: one month the Fed would be cutting by 3% and the very next month raising by 4% if they followed non-Core CPI (versus PCE).

The Bank of Canada, who sets rates in Canada based on StatCan data, looks are three different CPI measures:

* https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/capacity-and-in...

* https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/statistical-programs/document/2...


Interesting, for sure. I guess we need some way to include these volatile elements in a sane manner, which allows for sustained increases (or decreases) to register while smoothing the wide swings.


If you just want to look in the US, their other similar project seems to be working OK. https://river-runner.samlearner.com/


Yeah, I have an older LG and it has a disappointingly simple 4k fireworks visualization when it "sleeps" that always makes me wish I could create a custom replacement.


Lol, also rep. Jeff Van Drew claiming without evidence that the drones are coming from an Iranian mothership off the coast.


One of the channels that I follow is "What is Going on With Shipping" (its mostly about ocean going supply chain things and started with the Evergiven)... and today's video is: War of the Jersey Shore! | Did Iranian Navy Carriers Launch Drones Over the New Jersey? - https://youtu.be/hTpYN70tZ6Y

And since this is a "the Iranian mothership off the coast" - the info about where the drone carriers are is presented.

The video discretion links to other sites with info.

https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/1866922032681652322

> Iran has two drone carrier vessels; the SHAHID BAGHERI and the SHAHID MAHDAVI. Both are located in the anchorage of Shahid Bahonar, Iran.

> We know this because we are looking at them right now.


Something tells me that if there were so much as an Iranian dinghy sitting off the coast, the military would be extremely aware of its presence. Monitoring absolutely everything that it did.


Something tells me that if there were a bus-sized Chinese spy balloon floating all the way across the continental US, the military would be extremely aware of its presence.

(As I recall they were, but they would not publicly acknowledge it until the public sightings became undeniable.)


what/who ever that something is that is telling you that, i'd suggest a better source. it is part of the "game" that militaries the world over try to do things without their opponents knowing they were ever there. international boundaries are 12 miles of water, yet navy submarines get much much closer than that as a matter of course.

do you think the military or any 3 letter agency knows 100% where all foreign spies are within their borders?


"...without evidence..."

What he claimed was "high" (high-level, I assume, rather than intoxicated) and "reputable" sources who needed to remain anonymous told him there was circumstantial evidence of this.

I don't see any motive for him to make this up, or for those sources to. Perhaps someone in some agency is jumping to conclusions on partial information.

Or perhaps this fits into the pattern of DoD officials, ex-officials, and whistleblowers spinning tales of UAP sightings and an official UAP retrieval program.


> I don't see any motive for him to make this up

He's using this as an opportunity to paint the current federal administration, and state administration in NJ, as being incompetent, negligent and putting people in harms way.

It's standard politics.


> I don't see any motive for him to make this up

To get people to pay attention to him?


>I don't see any motive for him to make this up, or for those sources to.

To whip up more hysteria against Iran?


Maybe. There's a pattern there, too. For example:

https://x.com/mtracey/status/1855682527756697724


Yes and where did he even get this from? Why do we have representatives literally making up stories and telling them to the American public? What is actually going on here?


Probably just made it up. He's a naked opportunist and there's no penalty in the GOP (or arguably in Congress in general) for being a shameless liar.


Jaff Van Drew is endorsed by AIPAC and has received just over $100k from them.


In his defense, he is a Cold War relic.


He was 20 in 1973, that doesn't qualify as a CW relic. Not even a curio.


Relic from the Cold war, not a relic at the time of the cold war.


It still doesn't make sense. He was elected to Congress in 2018, long after the end of the Cold War. I think GP is just mixing him up with someone else.


Sure, to me it seems overly verbose in ways that are not relevant to the article.

6 GHz i9-14900K CPU

Nvidia GTX 1080 GPU

96 GB of DDR5 RAM

ASRock Z790 Pro RS Motherboard

Crucial T700 4 TB NVMe M.2 SSD

1,200-watt Corsair Power Supply

Ubuntu 22 LTS via Microsoft's Ubuntu for Windows on Windows 11 Pro


What? I really like Win 7 but it is for sure one of the best early examples of a "candy" ui. The close button looks like a jolly rancher and everything is glassy looking. If you are talking about "eye-candy" it also stretches far into that territory with title bar blurs, drop shadows and transparency effects across the OS.


56mph


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