tl;dr The best ~AI's~ LLM's slop asymptote is 10 hours.
Restated, if you let the best LLM chomp on a task for 10 hours, the output becomes slop.
* These tasks are of the type that you spend 1% of your SWE career working on.
* Each task is primed with an essay length prompt.
* You must play needle in the haystack for bugs in 10 hours worth of AI generated slop.
My experience trying AI coding at work and my observations of AI evangelists makes me believe AI coding is exclusively the purview of people who willing to handhold an AI at half pace to achieve the same result while working on software which amounts to greenfield/toy problems.
The danger of LLMs to thought work is enormously overstated and intentionally overhyped. AI : StackOverflow :: StackOverflow : graybeard in basement
It would be cool if AI kills all thought work, but what will actually happen is a undersupply of SWEs and a second golden age of SWE salaries in like 15y.
If you're buying an appliance, why have it manufactured by Ferrari? Modern cars, especially electric ones, are not exciting in any way as cars. Only agenda motivated e car foamers pretend otherwise. Electric cars are exclusively exciting as commodity transportation.
H1Bs risk deportation when they are fired. It is inconceivable for this to not impact their performance and behavior. Combine that with Amazon's Jack Welch style stack rank and firing of the bottom and it becomes even worse
Amazon has big enough global footprint of offices all over the world that even if someone loses their visa they can easily relocate back to their own country and work on the same projects from any of the massive offices there. And this actually happens all the time. Folks in Amazon move around as needed across border. The idea of h1-b servitude does not hold much relevance for companies like Amazon who have built massive offshore centers in the last few years.
> they can easily relocate back to their own country
Many visa workers have families, and relocating an entire household, especially when children are involved is a huge emotional and logistical challenge.
> Amazon has big enough global footprint of offices all over the world that even if someone loses their visa they can easily relocate back to their own country and work on the same projects from any of the massive offices there
Do you have any evidence that this has ever happened? It's a big company so I assume it's something that's demonstrable. I happen to think that it's unlikely that Amazon leadership would adapt by making allowance, rather than replace.
Yes, VFR pilots need to look outside a huge majority of the time. The rule of thumb is look out the window 90% of the time and peek at your instruments the remaining 10 percent. New primary students and especially simmers have a tendency to stare at the flight instruments, a bad habit that can be tough to break.
For example, ATC might give an altitude restriction for safety: “Cessna 123AB, maintain VFR at or below three thousand for crossing traffic.” Observing this restriction is important, but staring at the altimeter will likely result in the heading wandering all over the place and ironically even a tendency to over-control altitude that may cause wandering up and down. The proper way to execute it is to learn what the level sight picture looks like, put the nose there, trim for straight-and-level flight, and occasionally peek at the altimeter and VSI to confirm that it’s staying there. If the pilot gets distracted, say looking down at an iPad for a bit, look outside first to get back on heading if necessary, check the instruments (“take a picture with your mind”), and make small adjustments to get back to where it should be.
ATC operates on lots of buffers. For a restriction of three thousand, that crossing traffic is likely to be at 4,000 or higher.
Ah that makes quite a lot of sense and I'd definitely find myself with that bad habit if I tried flying. In a sim my purpose is to have fun flying the plane by the seat of my pants but flying in reality would have me anxious to avoid breaking any rules.
No need to anxious. Your CFI is there to keep you safe and prevent anything wildly dangerous while you’re teaching yourself to fly.
Look outside, and learn what correct looks like. References on the ground are already giving you gobs of information. The feel of the yoke and the sounds from the engine are also giving you continuous clues about what the airplane is doing. No sim I’ve seen reproduces all of those additional channels of information.
Where simulators are really helpful is with procedural flying, like practicing instrument approaches. You can’t log your desktop sim for currency, but advanced training devices are good enough in the FAA’s eyes.
I still do this occasionally, but I instead go to bed super early and wake up at 4:30-5 AM. You get the serenity of coding at the break of dawn but with none of the grogginess of the all nighter.
